Monday, June 14, 2010

CSI Nairobi: Blasting back into some sense

The Tin Man is coming out of self imposed retirement for patriotic duty. I have been unearthed from synthetic obscurity by blasts in the dark of night at a prayer meeting in Nairobi's Uhuru Park. While I will not claim any emoluments, this shall be official duty, coming to the aid of one Mr. Iteere who I am certain is at odds and ends as to how exactly to handle the embarrassing lapse of security at a very public event. He has called on the military to come and do his job. Shame on him! Most of all, I am coming to the aid of all those deficient in common sense and likely to be swayed by the idiocy of Nay sayers desperate for at least some attention from the electorate.

In common style, I shall be blunt. I shall declare that if you consider yourself intelligent enough to see through the melodrama of the Uhuru Park blasts and to see right into the real hue of this swab, then you need not read on. This shall be a guide book to those bordering on the illiterate unaware of how the earth spins on its axis. I shall be stating that as an expert in Common Sense Investigation, CSI, I am an authority and can on that basis determine the dots and crosses in this situation. I have a doctorate in Common Sense Investigation acquired from the University of CSI in Miami. I also attended all episodes of CSI New York. Today, my thesis shall be CSI Nairobi.

I will not attempt to confuse you with a lot of technical jargon. I will keep it simple. The facts of this case are: 1) There was to be a prayer meeting at Uhuru Park convened by various anti change clerics. 2) Way after the end of the meeting, there were two blasts that have to date claimed the lives of six people and left over sixty injured. At this point, I will show my respect to the dead and sympathy to the injured. In succession, I will don my investigative cap. For a suspect to be proven guilty of an murder, and not circumstantially implicated, three things must be clear. There must be the murder weapon. There must have been a motive on the part of the suspect. Finally, there must have been an opportunity for the suspect to carry out the act.
On the Tin Man dock are two suspects. YES and NO. Applying these universal principals of criminal prosecution, we shall determine who needs to fall for the disgrace brought upon as democratic a process as our constitutional review. The murder weapon is not in question. Two grenades. The association to the suspect would have to be any individual with the necessary skill to handle ballistics or in the least have a history of violence.

Yes members have been involved in a lot of violence, but usually on the receiving end with various including Kiraitu having been jailed for the cause of change. No members will also be remembered for certain violent incidents especially during the infamous Kanu Youth, or Jeshi La Mzee days when the two bosom buddies felt protected by Don Toroitich. Any idiot can see the point here.

For the motive, I am lost for choice of what to include and exclude. The No members have been trailing in the opinion polls. All three. Church leaders are desperate to reclaim a leadership of community that is fast slipping from their grasp. Among them are candidates of the Hague, keen to keep the change process just as that. A never ending process. They are desperate to claim popularity so as to avoid justice through high office, not unlike one Bashir from the North. They know that democracy failed them in parliament. Democracy is failing them in the public and their best ally is emotion, where common sense matters not. They are chasing this game and time is of the essence.

On the other hand, the Yes members have been enjoying local support as alleged by the opinion polls. They have been enjoying support from the clergy's electorate, the Christians even on the "evil" matters of Kadhi's courts and abortion. They have even received endorsements from the United States. This competition is theirs to lose. I am still unclear as to shy they would need a "magic trick" to reach the finish line. Even at a time when Al Faisal was an issue and all the hooligan Muslims had invaded our streets, all they could come up with were slings and stones. Would they really have suddenly remembered the choice jihad weapon to be bombs? But usually theirs is suicidal. Did we find any burqa or kanzu at the site?

Finally, let us look at opportunity. Imagine for a moment that you were a Yes fanatic planning a way to create a trick to enable you to win a battle you were already winning. I know it is absurd, but indulge me. That is why it is an imagination. Ask yourself, for the best impact, what time would be the best to detonate a bomb at a rival rally. Is it not when it was fully packed and when the relevant speakers were on the floor? Would it not be in broad daylight so the message is not lost in any darkness? I am ill qualified as a suicide bomber but elementary psychology would provide some useful indications.

Now snap back to reality and see yourself as a No fanatic facing the imminent possibility of a lost referendum vote. Imagine yourself having only religion as your fall back plan. Imagine yourself sure that there shall never be a campaign big enough for the media for the No campaign. First, you would have to lie to your audience and give free prayers of deliverance. That is what you would invite your congregation for. Not a No campaign. A deliverance crusade. It is during the invite that political leaders will show themselves and in a coup d'etat, pretend to 'recieve Jesus as their personal savior.' You would also ensure that you invite no police officers lest they have security checks that would foil your plans.

Since you are already short of votes, you would like to blast off at a time when the collateral damage can be limited to the least amount of votes. You would not explode your grenades during the speeches and in broad daylight because you will be listening to your leaders at that time. Your best opportunity would be right when most people have left. The impact would be the same. You will have tainted the image of your opponents in the YES camp and not have lost too many NO votes. Should your plan succeed, you will have gained the support of all those voters wearing goggles of idiocy. They will remember the martyrs of their faith and they will turn their votes from YES to NO. Perfect!

I close my CSI Nairobi file before making any conclusions. I will find one Waki and hand this file to him. He has a knack for witty action and he can ring Ocampo and Annan on short notice. I want him to include this evidence in his envelope. I am aware that Mr. Iteere is still grappling with Saw 19 starring one Onya-ncha from G4$. He is still busy trying to tour all the areas that Onya-ncha has been to. Trying to re-write his diary as opposed to putting his mind where it is needed most, in the prevention of crime. So I have done him a big favor. I have concluded the investigations and prosecutions. All that is left is for him to determine the culprits from the CSI Nairobi file and put them where their soap should not drop.

The Candid Tin Man.

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